Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight blog on the New York Times website is my other favorite lifeline this campaign season.? Nate is not talking ideology, only numbers.? And he’s calling what they show in his combined polling matrix.
He was calling momentum for Mitt Romney after the first debate until about October 11.? And then, though he didn’t discuss it that way, it was easy to see that Mitt’s momentum stopped, and Barack started his recovery.
This morning, Nate’s statement is that of the 22 swing state polls released yesterday, 19? show Barack ahead, with two tied, and with Mitt being shown as the winner of only one.? And that one is a Rasmussen poll, which, over these months, I’ve learned has a Republican tilt.? Those polls will show Mitt on top by many points, when other polls are calling a tie or a tilt to Obama.? So I didn’t get too worked up over Mitt getting one of 20.
Nate and his matter-of-factness are helping us all to stay calm.? My intuition has said all along that Barack is going to win.? But after that first debate, my left brain started to get panicky.? Nate is helping my intuition maintain the upper hand.